ZAMBIA HEADS TO THE POLLS AFTER PRESIDENTS DEATH

Zambians head to the polls on Tuesday in
a special election to chose a new
president for the copper-rich southern
African nation and replace Michael Sata
who died last year.
The contest is expected to be close
between two frontrunners — Defence and
Justice Minister Edgar Lungu, 58, and
opposition leader Hakainde Hichilema, 52.
The stakes are high for Lungu's ruling
Patriotic Front, which goes into the vote
badly fractured by a bitter power struggle
after Sata's death in October, just three
years into his five-year term.
Two opposing camps — one led by Lungu
and another by interim president Guy
Scott — nominated rival presidential
candidates.
After many weeks of mud-slinging, Lungu
emerged as the sole candidate — but that
left the party weakened and unable to
mount a solid campaign just a month
ahead of the vote.
Scott — Africa's first white leader in 20
years — cannot stand for the presidency
himself as his parents were not born in
Zambia.
"There is panic on the part of the Patriotic
Front because of the prospect of them
losing the election after having served
only three years," said Lusaka-based
political analyst Neo Simutanyi.
Despite the succession battle, Lungu has
the ruling party advantage and could also
enjoy a sympathy vote after the death of
Sata, various analysts said.
Lungu told AFP in an interview that the
party's track record showed "what we are
capable of doing".
But despite growth-oriented policies and a
stable economy over the past few years, at
least 60 percent of Zambia's population of
about 15 million lives below the poverty
line, according to World Bank figures.
The vote is taking place shortly after the
government controversially trebled mining
royalties and raised corporate taxes for
smelters, a move producers fear could lead
to job loses.
NO CANDIDATE HAS COMPLETE
ADVANTAGE
Lungu offered an olive branch to his
opponents both inside and outside the
party, pledging to form an inclusive
government if he wins office.
His toughest challenge comes from
Hichilema of the United Party for National
Development (UPND), despite the fact that
he has lost three previous attempts at the
presidency.
Hichilema is expected to perform better
this time around because he is the most
well-known of the 11 candidates and is
likely to draw votes from other opposition
parties that are in disarray.
Both men promise to alleviate poverty and
create jobs in an investor-friendly
economy.
But Lungu is seen as a humble man whom
voters relate to easily, while Hichilema is
wealthy and perceived as elite.
The UPND has 32 members of parliament
and the PF has 74, so if Hakainde wins he
will have to run the country with a
minority in parliament.
The former governing party, the
Movement for Multiparty Democracy, has
37 parliamentary seats and is fielding
evangelist Nevers Mumba as its candidate,
but analysts give him little chance.
"Hakainde may be able to swing it, there
has been too much blood on the (PF)
floor," said Martin Rupiya, a senior
researcher with the University of South
Africa.
But in the absence of opinion polls,
analysts are cautious with their
predictions.
"As things stand right now, I don't think
any of the candidates has a complete
advantage," said Simutanyi, director of
the Centre for Policy Dialogue think-tank.
"So the pendulum is somewhere in the
middle and it can tilt either way."
If Hichilema does win, it would be the
third time in 25 years that power has
changed hands peacefully from one party
to another, an enviable reputation in a
region where some parties have clung to
power for more than three decades.
"When Zambian politicians lose power,
even when they have been in power for
20 years, they don't try to engage in dirty
tricks and hold onto power," said Cathal
Gilbert, an independent political analyst
who closely follows developments in
Zambia.
Whoever is elected will serve out the
remaining 19 months of Sata's term.
Sata, who won the 2011 vote with 42
percent, was Zambia's second leader to
die in office in six years, sparking calls
for presidential aspirants to undergo
medical checks to guarantee they are fit.